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Country insight – China

China’s energy demand growth slows to 1.1% p.a. through the Outlook, less than one fifth of its pace in the last 22 years (5.9% p.a.)

Highlights

1.1% increase

Annual average growth in China’s energy consumption

22%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

29% increase

Growth in China’s energy production


Despite slowing energy demand growth, China remains the world’s largest energy consumer, accounting for 22% of world energy consumption in 2040.
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China’s energy intensity declines by 3.4% p.a. over the Outlook, slightly faster than the average decline of 3.0% p.a. between 1995 and 2017.
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China’s energy mix continues to evolve, with coal’s share declining to 35% in 2040, from 60% in 2017.

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Projections

  • Energy consumption and production rise by 28% and 29%, respectively, between 2017 and 2040, slightly slower than the global increases of 32% for both.
  • China’s share in global energy demand drops from 23% in 2017 to 22% in 2040, while it contributes 20% of the world’s net increase.
  • China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 60% in 2017 to 35% in 2040 and natural gas doubling to 14%; renewables’ share rises from 3% in 2017 to 18% in 2040.
  • Demand for almost all fuels expands: oil (+19%) and gas (+166%); renewables in power (+553%), nuclear (+405%) and hydro (+31%). Coal demand declines (-25%).
  • Coal demand peaked in 2013. However, China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal throughout the outlook, accounting for 39% of global coal demand in 2040.?
  • Nuclear increases by 7.3% p.a. from 2017 to 2040, and China accounts for 37% of global nuclear power generation in 2040.
  • Renewables expand rapidly, rising by 8.5% p.a. to 2040, and accounting for 26% of global renewables by then.
  • Energy production as a share of energy consumption drops to 75% in 2024 and then recovers to 80% by 2040.
  • China’s gas production grows by 218 Bcm (+146%) from 2017 to 2040.
  • Oil import dependence rises from 67% in 2017 to 76% in 2040. Gas import dependence rises from 38% in 2017 to 43% in 2040.
  • With the economy increasing by 181% from 2017 to 2040, China’s energy intensity declines by 54%.
  • Carbon emissions peak in 2022.
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