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Global insight – Evolving transition

Global energy consumption grows by around one-third over the Outlook; energy intensity falls faster than at any time since at least 1965, and the energy mix shifts towards lower carbon fuels

Highlights

1.2% increase

Annual growth in global energy consumption

50%

Contribution of renewables to primary energy growth

40%

Proportion of CO2 emissions from power sector in 2040


Renewables are the fastest growing fuel source, nearly quintupling over the Outlook.
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Oil and gas account for more than half of global energy in 2040, down from 57% today.
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Coal’s share of power generation declines from 40% in 2017 to nearly one-quarter in 2040.

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Projections

  • In the Evolving transition scenario world energy demand increases by one-third from 2017 to 2040.
  • All of this growth comes from developing economies, with emerging Asia (India, China and other developing Asia) accounting for two-thirds of the increase.
  • Nearly half of the growth in energy consumption comes from industrial uses (combusted and non-combusted); just over a third from buildings; and about a sixth from transport.
  • Natural gas grows robustly, overtaking coal as the second largest source of energy by the mid-2020s and converging on oil by the end of the Outlook. Natural gas contributes around a third of the increase in primary energy.
  • Demand for oil and other liquid fuels increases by 10 Mb/d (to 108 Mb/d). Most of that growth happens during the first 10 years with demand broadly plateauing in the 2030s.
  • Non-combusted use of liquid fuels (7 Mb/d) is the main source of demand growth, followed by transport (6 MB/d).????????
  • Global coal consumption is broadly flat (-0.1%), with falls in China and the OECD offset by increases in India and other developing Asia.
  • Renewables and natural gas are the only energy sources whose share in primary energy increases over the Outlook, and together account for 85% of the increase. Renewables share rises from 4% today to 15% by 2040.
  • Global oil production becomes geographically more concentrated as low-cost producers gain share. The Middle East, US, and Russia account for two-thirds of oil production in 2040, up from 60% in 2017.
  • The US, the Middle East and Russia account for 60% of the gas production increase. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) more than doubles, driven by the US and the Middle East, overtaking gas shipped inter-regionally by pipeline.
  • CO2 emissions from energy use rise by 7% by 2040. In 2040, 46% of CO2 emissions are from the industrial sector; the transport and buildings sectors contribute just over a quarter each.
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